Editors Note: This is the largest guest article we have ever received on Source Gaming! Voyager has written almost 60 pages about his hypothesis for the next Smash. This is actually the first part of a four part article. This part will explain his hypothesis while the next three parts will delve into individual series. It’s an interesting thought experiment.
Part 1: How many Characters will be in the next Smash? A hypothesis.
Part 3: Potential Characters for the Next Smash Roster– Part 2. Covers Donkey Kong, Metroid, Kirby, and Star Fox. [Will be published today!]
Part 4: Potential Characters for the Next Smash Roster– Part 3. Covers F-Zero, MOTHER, Kid Icarus, Retro, and New Wave characters
Part 5: Potential Characters for the Next Smash Roster– Part 4. Covers Mii Characters and 3rd Party Characters
Disclaimer: This is a mathematical exercise sprinkled with informed opinions and naive hopes, made just for fun
maybe for glory.
Hello, I’m Voyager, and since October of last year I have been making a video series about the possible next Super Smash Bros. game. In them I talk primarily about the amount of characters that we might get and the possible roster of characters. If you didn’t know about them, I don’t blame you– after all, my videos are in Spanish.
Here is the link of the first one, it has subtitles in English, so you can understand it. Don’t laugh, I have improved… I hope. Well, enough of self-deprecation.
For this hypothesis, I came up with a simple calculation, a trend line, with which, we can predict a future outcome based on past data.
Obvious Warning: This clearly won’t be 100% accurate. Super Smash Bros. is a series heavily charged with surprises, so trying to make accurate predictions futile, but we can try to anticipate some moves…. Despite not having the Monado.
Until now, the numbers looks like this.
This data considers two arbitrary points:
1.- The playable characters are counted as individuals, not as “slots” in the CSS, e.g. Pokémon Trainer in Brawl count as three characters (Ivysaur, Squirtle and Charizard). Except the Mii fighters, this will be explained later.
2.- It also considers the DLC Characters in the count of Smash for Wii U/3DS. As the data compares the “finished game”. This may translate in an overestimation of the amount of characters at the release date in the next game. But the idea is to predict the game in a finished state due to the potential character distribution which will be explained in a moment.
As you can see, this linear trend line gives us just the raw number of characters, About 70, but not too much information about which ones, so I made another set of trend lines, in this case, for each family or franchise. The breakdown of the groups is in the annex at the end of this article.
The raw numbers add up to 70, but when the numbers are rounded up they equal 73. The problem is that with 73 may be a hard overestimation, but it looks good in a 7×11 grid:
That may seem good enough, but my current hypothesis is for just 70 characters because of the overestimation problem, and it will fit in a nice 8×9 grid. This grid give us two empty extra spaces if we get some extra DLC or a “random button” spot. It also looks good enough for the TV display or a handheld device, whichever the NX might use.
As you may notice, the grid is just grey, that’s because the numbers don’t seem coherent enough for me. I mean this:
As you may be thinking: “It looks nice, but… Still only Captain Falcon for F-Zero?… Seven characters for Fire Emblem and eight for Pokémon? That’s too much”… Well, to resolve this problem, I came up with the following table, the “Current hypothesis”.
This way we can represent the franchises by their historical weight and influences in the video game world. Giving space to showcase both older and new characters, fan favorites and the always well received iconic 3rd party characters.
So… What do you think? Let me know your opinions, as this is my own. I’m 100% sure that this has flaws and it’s might not represent in the slightest the real development cycle and result of the next Super Smash Bros. game. But it is a fun idea to play with.
But again, as a disclaimer, this is pure speculation, based on informed opinions and naive hopes, and everything here is in the context of the exercise we started last time. Sometimes, I’ll ask you to follow my train of thought, despite some ideas may sound counter-intuitive at points, but feel free to comment if you agree or disagree, I appreciate both interactions.
Continue onto the next page as I explain fighting archetypes [The next page is under “related posts”].
Mains: Yoshi (64), Game and Watch (Melee), Wario (Brawl), Wario/Pac-Man (Smash for 3DS/Wii U)