SG Roundtable: Rumor Betting

rumor betting

Today, we here at Source Gaming are doing something a little different. We will be discussing our thoughts on several rumors. These rumors are not confirmed information. Instead, we will be discussing if we think if and when these rumors will come true.

The Next Nintendo Direct


Summary: Nintendo has confirmed that there will be another direct before the end of the year. Some people have claimed it will come next week, while others believe it will come later — possibly in December. Either way, Nintendo did confirm there are some titles that they have not announced that will release before the business year. Therefore, the next Nintendo Direct could be substantial.


I think we’ll see a Direct late November, after Black Friday as a General Direct. I expect it’ll briefly touch upon the December releases for  NA/Europe/Japan but otherwise be about 2016 releases, Amiibo, and possible DLC (New Smash Character DLC anyone?)


I think that the 3rd week of November would be the ideal target for Nintendo. First of all, it would allow them to cover any special releases/announcements just before the Black Friday/Christmas season kicks off. It would also provide good timing for an update on Smash DLC, since November 21st was the day of release in North America and the other regions followed shortly after. I would be incredibly surprised if a direct appeared in December, as that would begin cutting into potential holiday profits. As for the content, I believe it will mostly be updates on DLC and postponed games such as Star Fox Zero. I think we get one or two ‘mid-sized’ surprises like we did with Majora’s Mask 3DS, but I’m not convinced we’ll see any really big announcements until 2016.


 I think we might see a Nintendo Direct in mid-November. If Nintendo has announcements for Black Friday (like a special bundle, price drop or a new downloadable game) then it would want to announce those before the adverts get leaked. Like Arcaira, I believe that most of the content will be DLC (Triforce Heroes, Smash, possibly Splatoon and Mario Maker) and updates on games we know about. Project Guard and Robot could be shown off in a more proper form, as they are still on the financial meeting notes.


Worldwide Nintendo Directs have occurred more often in December (2012 and 2013) than in November (2014). I don’t necessarily think a Direct has to happen before Black Friday. Although a November Nintendo Direct is very possible, I expect the next Nintendo Direct to happen during the first week of December and will discuss games and content releasing in the fourth quarter of Nintendo’s fiscal year.


I personally believe that we will get a Nintendo direct at the November. This is mainly because of what Arcaira said; I believe it will coincide with the anniversary of Super Smash Bros for Wii U although not necessarily the US launch. The Japanese launch was the last one to come out and so if it coincides with this date then it will be 1 year after the game has come out for all major areas. Not to mention that the development team is Japanese so they are probably following the Japanese dates. As for the content I don’t expect much in the way of software. Another Mario wave of amiibo and the remaining DLC amiibos for Smash; DLC for Super Mario Maker and Triforce Heroes are also a given at this point as is Twilight Princess HD. We might get Pikmin 4 shown for the first time or maybe a new 3DS game but it won’t be anything coming in this fiscal year. Then we will get updates on many games we already know, especially #FE and Hyrule Warriors Legends which come out soonish in Japan.


With a direct confirmed as coming for this year it’s really just a matter of “when” it will come. While I think a November direct is more likely, I wouldn’t fully rule out it dropping in early December. They’ll probably want to mostly focus on their 2016 game lineup, but the holiday period is so important that they’re going to want to highlight anything major that’s dropping in time for the holiday season. We’ve also unofficially seen the Lucas Amiibo so we’re due an official announcement of that shortly.


Twilight Princess HD & eShop Leaks

Image Source: Zelda Dungeon
Image Source: Zelda Dungeon

Summary: The Wii U is very open. From the numerous security exploits, NWPlayer123 and zhuowei datamined the Nintendo eShop servers itself to discover that The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess HD is an unused name file, among over 80 other unannounced titles. In addition, there has been numerous sightings of an unidentifiable Link render.


It’s hard to deny the evidence. Given Nintendo’s words, I believe this may be a world wide December release to further tide the gap until Zelda Wii U comes out. I’d put it no later than March however.


It makes sense that they would remaster Twilight Princess, but in a lot of ways I feel that Nintendo has been pumping out way too many Zeldas. I mentioned it in the Upcoming Nintendo games discussion, so it might be a rehash for our dedicated fans. While I enjoyed Triforce Heroes, I feel that the amount of Zelda remakes and releases have been too close together and is starting to make the series less special. The major positive point that I can see from all these re-releases is that it’s nice to have access to almost all the Zeldas with just the Wii U/ 3DS for the new players.

Anyway, as for the rumor– since it’s already on the eShop, then I think a release could be soon, possibly late November or early December. I believe it would be announced in the next Nintendo Direct.


These rumors make a lot of sense to me. The Zelda Wii U team previously mentioned that they had played around with HD versions of games when trying to find a decent art style, and so it is not outside the realm of reason to think Twilight Princess had that initial treatment, given it’s somewhat unique and dark art style. Twilight Princess has also been highly regarded, so it would be a decent way to tide over fans. As for the rest of the eShop leaks, I also think it is plausible. It has been well known that hackers have been able to extract patches off of the eShop early, and that they generally have their foot in the door. The full list of games allegedly leaked also seems very realistic, with nothing jumping out as being fake or ambitious, specially with the E3 announcement of DS games being added.


A relatively low-cost release of one of the most highly regarded games of all time in a time where Nintendo is really starved for any sort of release for the winter holiday makes sense, and Twilight Princess HD does hit all of the criteria. I’m not sure if it’s what the fans want, necessarily, but Nintendo doesn’t really have a lot to offer.


Data-mining has been the most reliable way information has been leaked, so I’m inclined to believe this rumor is true. Furthermore, other eShop games that were found through data-minging have been confirmed. An HD remake of Twilight Princess makes sense because Nintendo has been making remakes of most of the major 3D Zelda games. The Video Game Sales Wiki estimates that total sales for Twilight Princess are around 8 million, so an HD remake of the game makes sense.


Twilight Princess HD is a given at this point. It will be announced soon as well. What is interesting is that it is listed in the Japanese eshop but not in the US or European one. With Hyrule Warriors Legends launching in January/February time for Japan I do not expect multiple Zelda titles to launch so close together, so I actually expect Japan will get this first in December. Possibly late December, just before Christmas time. Twilight Princess on Gamecube launched in December so it is possible. Then the rest of the world will get it in February time, kind of like with Majora’s Mask. The lack of any other game listed in the eshop that was not a Virtual Console game says to me that we should not expect any other ‘new’ games in 2015.


With all the recent HD remasters of the 3D Zelda games, I don’t think anyone is truly surprised that a Twilight Princess HD is around the corner. Zelda games are more often than not masterpieces, and I think it’s grand that Nintendo are allowing us the opportunity to play these games with the best visuals possible while still maintaining their original identities. Majora’s Mask on the 3DS was actually announced in November of 2014 and released the following February, which would line up nicely with Twilight Princess also. Of course, Skyward Sword HD will probably bookend this period of Zelda HD remasters.


Shovel Knight in Smash


Summary: Over a couple months ago, Liam Roberston (Tamaki) heard from a credible source that Shovel Knight was going to be in Smash. After verifying his source, PushDustIn decided to report on the rumor on Source Gaming. Some time has passed since the rumor went live, but the status of Shovel Knight in Smash is ambiguous as he has not been confirmed nor ‘deconfirmed’ at this point in time.
(Note: Tamaki had approved of this summary.)


I personally don’t know whether or not it’s true. The source from where it came is credible and definitely in a position in which they’d conceivably able to obtain such knowledge, but it’s common sense to wait and see how it pans out. Yacht Club has been suspiciously evasive about directly denying whether or not it’s true; even completely dodging the question at PAX during interviews. That certainly strikes me as odd, but again, I’ll believe it when I see some kind of definitive proof.


I still support it, as there are certain facts that have yet to really be disputed. I don’t think this is one rumor that can really be deadlined, Shovel Knight is clearly being given special attention from Nintendo, like the Shovel Knight Amiibo YCG is making/selling, so having Shovel Knight be in Smash would be a huge step for Indy Gaming, and I’d love to see it happen.


Did you ever hear rumors in high school? Sometimes they would be exaggerated, but usually they were based on some fact. Cartman might not have actually punched Kyle, but they were very close to it during their screaming match with each other. Put simply, I still believe in the Shovel Knight rumor even though it’s been over a couple of months. I’ve verified Tamaki’s source, and there is still reason to believe Shovel Knight is coming as a DLC character. Information like this usually doesn’t come from nowhere, so I think it could still play out. I personally don’t really care for Shovel Knight in Smash…as I think he lacks the icon status of other third party characters, and is unknown in Japan…so if it doesn’t end up becoming true I’ll actually be a little relieved.


 I’ve heard many iterations of this rumour, and so far there hasn’t been anything that has convinced me that it is plausible. The biggest thing Shovel Knight had going for him was the amiibo, but by that logic Inklings, Chibi-Robo, Toad and Tom Nook are also equally plausible candidates. I understand that Shovel Knight is a good game and sold really well in North America, but I just feel like his character is too new and low-impact still. He’s only been in one game, and that hasn’t even been released in Japan. There are so many other classic third party characters, that while unlikely overall, have a way higher likelihood than Shovel Knight.


I don’t believe it. I never did, and nothing has come up that’s made me change my mind. I don’t really mind if he does or doesn’t get in, though.


First, let’s review some facts about Shovel Knight. Shovel Knight has only sold about 700,000, according to Yacht Club Games, the game has yet to be released in Japan, and most other commonly-requested characters have been in titles that have sold at least a million units. Given that, Shovel Knight doesn’t make sense as a new addition to the roster, especially as a standalone purchase. This rumor has only gained traction because the person who reported the rumor has some credibility. However, that alone is insufficient to give this rumor any substantial weight. Furthermore, the original source stated in August that fans would find out if the rumor was true or not within a month or two, yet it has been over two months since then, leading me to believe that this rumor is dead.

I disagree that Yacht Club’s actions are suspicious. The “suspicious actions” are nothing more than confirmation bias (which is not unique with rumors). People then to look into thing that “confirm” the rumor when, in fact, the events are unrelated. For example, when the amiibo website listed the Shovel Knight amiibo as compatible with Super Smash Brothers for Wii U, many thought that this was proof that Shovel Knight was going to be playable. However, the website had other error such as Zero Suit Samus being compatible with Duck Tales Remastered and the Chibi Robo and Toad amiibos also being compatible with Super Smash Bros for Wii U. Likewise, Yacht Club Game’s actions may be simple PR rather than avoiding any discussion about his “inevitable” inclusion in Smash.


I am in a weird place with this rumour. From what we all know about the development of Super Smash Bros and Sakurai in general, Shovel Knight should not have any chance to get into Smash. But yet, I do believe this rumour. This is probably because I trust in what Push and Tamaki say and have no reason to doubt their source. Will I get Shovel Knight? Yes, I love the game. Will I be accepting of his inclusion? It is hard to say. If there is a good reason for why Shovel Knight was chosen then sure. I like to believe that NCL are publishing the game in Japan and making it a Nintendo exclusive. Yacht Club Games are being coy about their Japan publisher which is weird and when doing research on this publisher I realized that no console has been confirmed in Japan for Shovel Knight. Yacht Club have not said anything on the subject and the general assumption is that it will come to the same consoles as in the West because why would it not? But NCL like this game, enough to apparently approach Yacht Club with the amiibo offer so it would not surprise me if their relationship was a good one. We also do not know Sakurai’s view on the character. It may be that Sakurai himself really enjoyed Shovel Knight and wanted to put him in the game. If NCL are publishing the game then i see this as a Roy in melee situation and it is simply advertising. Otherwise I do not think he should be in over other, more suitable, 3rd party choices.


As they say, there’s no smoke without fire, I do genuinely think that there’s a reason to believe that Shovel Knight could be on the way. Due to the nature of it, the Shovel Knight rumour isn’t one that’s going to die until all of the DLC has been revealed, though this is one rumour that I sincerely hope pans out to be false. This really is just a case of ‘wait and see’.


A “Smashing” announcement in a Splatoon Direct

Image Source: Smashified Team (Not an official render)

Summary: RogersBase was informed by a reliable source that there was going to be a “Smashing” announcement at the end of a mini-Splatoon direct on October 23rd, 2015. RogersBase has never confirmed that it was going to be Inklings in Smash. However, many fans interpreted that Inklings were going to be included in Smash due to the nature of the announcement. While the data for the direct and the “Smashing Announcement” has passed, there are still some fans who believe that Inklings are coming to Smash in the form of DLC.
(Note: RogersBase had approved of this summary.)


At this point, I think the Splatoon Direct was fake and isn’t happening. I also don’t think at this point Inkling was even worked on….yet. Given the HUGE sales of Splatoon though, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them as DLC later to further promote a huge new IP for them.


My opinion on the Inklings is a ‘Yes, but…’ one. Given Splatoon’s global success and first party status, I think they’re very likely for Smash, and it would be smart for Nintendo to ride on their popularity while it is still peaking. That said, I am unsure the credibility of this specific instance of the rumour. Saying that a highly-popular, highly-demanded first party character might get in is low-hanging fruit. The base likelihood of this happening is already so high that it is a relatively low risk guess compared to say, Shovel Knight. So yes I believe the Inklings have a good chance of getting in, but I won’t believe they’re in until I see concrete evidence.


I agree with Arcaira. I do think this rumor has the potential of playing out for similar reasons I stated in my Shovel Knight response. The information is from a supposedly credible source that has a history with RogersBase, so I could see it still playing out. Inklings were the most liked newcomer character on BluePikmin11’s Individual Character Poll, and their overall popularity and recognition among gaming fans would make them an easy contender to join the battle.


I think it’s very possible that Inklings are in Smash, but I don’t think Rogersbase’s source (if he had one) really knew anything. Of course, this statement is exactly the sort of statement that protects my own “credibility” no matter what the outcome, so I suppose I’m being slightly hypocritical here, but regardless, I tend to discredit most rumors anyway.


Although there is talk that Splatoon could receive another big update, the game will likely not receive another Direct. Game specific Directs discuss the game as a whole and act as a way to promote new titles. Thus, the information about a large update would likely come through a standard Nintendo Direct rather than a Splatoon specific one. Also, like the Shovel Knight rumor, the timeframe for this rumor to be true has since passed. I do think the Inklings have a strong chance to be included in Super Smash Bros for Wii U/3DS, but I think this rumor is false nonetheless.  


I myself am firmly in the camp that does not think the Inklings will be in Super Smash Bros for Wii U and 3DS. I do think they will be in Smash 5 but my reasoning is not because Nintendo want to hold them off to have a big franchise. Instead, it is because I believe the 3DS cannot handle the Inklings in the way I believe Sakurai would want to represent them. I did my own Dream Smashers article on this so I read that if you want my full opinion. As for this rumour it just was not true. Some sort of misinformation must have happened with Roger’s source. Maybe he felt confident because of all of the data-mining and speculation done by Nikki before this rumour came out.


I’ve spoken to several different sources about the Inklings rumour and am of the mindset that no one was intentionally being deceitful about what they knew. Clearly the time for the direct announcement has passed which does hurt this, and of course as more time goes on, the more unlikely this will be to have panned out. Nevertheless, Inklings were characters I saw as being likely regardless of the rumour and I still maintain that they are among the most likely characters to be added.


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  1. I always look forward to these roundtables.Nice to seefor the most part your guys opinions on things are all over the place.I personally think will see a direct this month with TP HD,Shovel Knight, and Inklings but maybe i’m just a sheep

  2. Reading this just makes me want SOMETHING to be confirmed really badly. 🙁 I want to believe in the rumors with credible sources (especially the one about Inkling), but it’s getting to the point where they seem less likely as time goes on.

    Whoever or whatever is announced (even if it’s just another round of Mii Fighter costumes), I’ll be happy… I’m just tired of playing the waiting game.

    1. It feels like we are in a dry season for Nintendo information… It doesn’t feel like there is much to talk about and Nintendo has been surprisinglt quiet with its lack of Directs or news releases.

  3. This has to be one of my favorite Roundtables, particularly with the “guest starring” of Tamaki and Neo Zero! It may have been interesting if you contacted RogersBase as an additional guest as well, given his connections with the Inkling rumor.

    I also had a question: where would we ask questions for you guys to answer during the podcasts? (if it’s here… I hope this doesn’t count as my question ^^’)

    1. RogersBase was given the opportunity to add his bit. I did see his approval for the Inklings in Smash summary!

      You can post them as questions in the podcast post, or tweet them with the #scqa hashtag. The next podcast should be up around Monday. The next one will be recorded two Sundays from now!

  4. This is the really interesting rumor discussion article I’ve read!

    Direct rumor: As Nintendo Direct is always recorded in Japan, Black Friday isn’t familiar to there at all, so I doubt it’ll release before that event. I think it’ll be released in the early December, as that’s the first anniversary of Smash 4 for Wii U in Japan. I think it’ll be a perfect timing to release it before the Christmas week, as for the advertisement of the Wii U bundle pack, and probably presentation for new DLCs for Smash, and maybe Splatoon and Mario Maker. New games such as Pikmin 4, Mario & Sonic Olympics, Hyrule Warriors Legend, #FE, Shantae, Star Fox Zero, the rumored Twilight Princess HD, etc, maybe the best timing to be introduced too. Otherwise, they might show it in the end of December or the beginning of January 2016.

    Twilight Princess HD rumor: I’ve heard of this many times through Gamexplain, but it doesn’t seem to be impressive some how. I haven’t played the game before so I really don’t know, but is the game not that popular? Some people, including my friend at my workplace, doesn’t seem to believe in this rumor, but if it was meant to be a fake, then I really don’t understand why Nintendo remade the TP Link’s official artwork into 3D form. If that pic has some meaning to it, then there may be possibilities that TP will be remade into HD. Furthermore, maybe they’ll also make an HD version of Phantom Hourglass and Spirit Tracks too. (lol) I think they’ll start talking about it in the new Direct as I talked about it above.

    Shovel Knight rumor: Now before I say this, I must remind everybody that I don’t hate Shovel Knight, nor any Indies games like Shantae. I’m just one of those people who don’t support any Indies characters to join Smash, as I didn’t even believe in this rumor. Shovel Knight’s game were never mentioned globally, as the game was never released in Japan. Even if Sakurai did played the game before, I think Sakurai’s trying to focus on games that was released globally. Although Shovel Knight is such a popular game, I wouldn’t think “popularity” is the point of Smash. If popularity was meant to be for Smash, then Sakurai should’ve chosen only on popular characters instead, such as Ashley rather than Rosalina, and even Professor Layton rather than Ryu. Plus, Shovel Knight is still new to the game world; it doesn’t even have a series of it. Although third party’s historical relationship with Nintendo is a “minor” requirements, games that doesn’t have many sequels won’t have a chance to be in Smash, and that’s something Sakurai already expressed about before.
    It’s amiibo figure doesn’t even confirm anything at all, but it is strange why Yacht Club never confirmed anything earlier. If they knew the amiibo figure was leaked and everybody’s rumoring about it, then they should’ve explained that the figure doesn’t work on Smash when the rumor was spread. Why did they confirmed it this late? If they were busy on something, then that’s understandable, but even though they could’ve acted sooner to avoid disappointments of their expectations.
    However, even I believe Shovel Knight won’t have a chance to be in Smash due to his lack of global support, it is also wondering that maybe we won’t have another third party character in the next DLC. Smashchu did explained this in his recent article before, so if that’s true, then we shouldn’t expect any third parties as there may not be possibilities at this moment. Even though, I’m still hoping for Sega and Namco to bring their second characters…

    Splatoon rumor: I really don’t know about this rumor as I haven’t heard of it before. I’ve heard that there might be a huge update for Splatoon, which we might get the Octolings playable because it OCTober…yeah, a pun.(lol) But I was really a fool of this rumor…as I waited in the exact date that they mentioned, nothing happened. I should’ve known that rumor was a lie, but even though, there may be a possibility of the Inklings to be in Smash DLC. As I’ve already stated that popularity isn’t all about Smash, I think the Inklings may have a chance to be in Smash for many reasons. There may be possibilities, but we won’t know until Sakurai and Nintendo bring out something for us.

    However in opinion, rumors are things that cannot be trusted at this moment. As there’s no concrete evidence to prove that rumor is true, we can’t determine that it is until the officials just show us right into our face. Otherwise, although these rumors are interesting to discuss about, we have to wait and see what Nintendo will bring us in the near future. And finally, sorry for the long text.(^^;)

  5. We’ve gone so long without concrete information that it’s getting really hard to guess exactly what Nintendo is up to…but let me see if I can take a crack at this.

    -I think we’ll see a Direct around the week before Thanksgiving, at the latest. They’ll want to get people interested in whatever they have planned before the holiday season kicks off, so they’ll probably want it fresh in their minds long enough before the craziness that is Black Friday. It’s still possible that they’ll wait until December, but it feels like a safer guess to say we’ll see a regular Direct this month, and maybe a special mini-Direct next month for Xenoblade Chronicles X.

    -Those eshop leaks look legit so far, and between them and the new Link render in a very familiar pose, Twilight Princess HD looks like it’s going to be a thing. I wonder how long it’s been in the works? Maybe it was a secondary project at first, and then once the new Zelda had to be delayed, they started pushing TPHD to be ready sooner to help bridge the gap? Could it actually be the reason they were so willing to delay the new Zelda?

    -I’m not buying the Shovel Knight rumors. More than anything, they seem like they were trying to capitalize on what seemed probable at the time. Sakurai has been ultra-selective with third party characters so far, sticking to massive icons with a long history, and we’ve seen no reason yet to believe that’s changed. Combine that with the fact that Shovel Knight is mostly unknown in Japan and the fact that Takamaru was actually turned down early in development out of fear that he was too unknown among the Western fanbase, and I have serious doubts.

    Sorry, Tamaki. I think you had the wool pulled over your eyes on this one.

    -The Splatoon Direct rumor seems all but shot down now. Something must be coming soon since we know they’re leading up to making the Octolings playable, but it probably won’t be in the way the rumor claimed it would. Could easily be a reveal during a regular Direct, you know?

    As for the Inklings in Smash, I don’t think they’re as clear-cut as they’re usually assumed to be. Sakurai has always hesitated on adding IPs to Smash that haven’t existed for very long, and Splatoon still hasn’t even been around for half a year yet! Plus, we don’t know what kind of extra programming there’d need to be for a stage-inking mechanic, something the Inklings would need to have to feel true to character (and we’ve seen not feeling true to character be a BIG problem before, if you get what I mean), and I have doubts if the 3DS would have the necessary framework or RAM to be able to pull it all off without causing lag. And as we know, that was the reason the Ice Climbers were left off.

    To me, the Inklings are starting to feel like the new Chrom: a character seen as inevitable even though they have notable issues that could keep them out. While they’re certainly possible, it seems very plausible that Sakurai will decide to wait until the next Smash game and let Splatoon develop naturally for now.

  6. Is a Shovel Knight costume in the realm of possibility? Can’t think of anything else that addresses both the “where there’s smoke” factor and the character’s barriers to inclusion.

    1. It’s a possibility, but the rumors specifically said that SK would be a playable character, not a costume, IIRC.

      Though, a costume would make a lot more sense… it’d be a way to somewhat appease the SK fans while not alienating the “SK doesn’t have the legacy to be in Smash” fans.

        1. That’s why I said “somewhat,” but yeah, if the reactions from the K. Rool costume are any indication, it wouldn’t go over well with SK fans.

          Though, I always say… if your favorite character isn’t getting in Smash, a Mii Fighter costume is the next best thing. The majority of the fandom disagrees, but then I tend to disagree with the majority in general anyway. 😛

  7. Still gonna be that guy, but the “datamined the Nintendo eShop servers” link gives a youtube redirect link. :L

    Just dropping my 2 extra cents on the leaks though. Being a generally pessimistic person, even with the long drought without info, I don’t really trust all these rumors at all. Especially when most of these “leakers” just claim to have a reliable source, then proceed to not tell anything else, some just to only tease Smash fans. While you, SG Team as a whole, would be able to verify and say, “oh, the sources really seem true. I believe it now”, we have no idea what the source is, and we can’t even verify if you are really not lying on verification. This gets more infuriating when almost all recent leaks points toward the idea of “Wolf is not DLC”, and to that if they do give a date, I can only wait out to debunk them one by one.

    (For TPHD, I simply don’t care. If it happens, cool. If it doesn’t, it doesn’t bother me either)

    And as for the “there’s smoke” thing, I don’t completely buy that idea either. To put, we’re in a drought of information, anything that looks like a water source for us might just had been a mirage (or even worse, some popular people giving fake hope just to trick people). Like so, we see something act strange, and we already overthought and think there is a direct confirmed. These are just the more popular examples.

  8. People are saying that Yacht club are lying and are hiding something. When Hideo Kojima said he wasn’t sure about Snake being in Smash 4, some people thought he was trolling but that wasn’t the case. I can only see one more Third Party Character, but he/she has to be iconic like Megaman.

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