I am still working on collecting data for the sequel to Perception of Smash DLC in Japan. However, because it’s taking a lot longer than I expected, and because I feel some sort of news is imminent, I decided to release a list of characters that I see being heavily requested in Japan. I’m also including a short FAQ at the bottom, which you should read before asking questions/ commenting. If there’s one thing that you should understand it’s:
THIS DATA IS NOT FINAL.
When I feel that I’ve collected enough data, I will release additional information about the rankings. I still haven’t decided if I’ll do another pie chart, as that format stuck with a lot of people. This data is based on over 600 comments, so I feel confident that these characters will be the front runners in the final results. Currently this data comes mostly from blogs, and 2ch, so it measures “hardcore support“. Some of it also comes from Twitter, but I’m still working through votes. Anyway, enjoy.
Veterans:
Roy– I am still working through pre-Lucas/Roy/Ryu votes which is why Roy appears among the top requested vets. Roy was heavily requested among fans. Again, not too surprising considering the last data I have released.
Wolf – Wolf is the (as of the current data) highest requested veteran to come back. He is easily in the top five requested characters overall, and his votes are consistent. This is to be expected from that last data that I collected, as he was ranked #2, right after Lucas. I’m still looking at results from pre-Lucas/Roy/Ryu release so I am not sure if his situation has changed. However, at least at the start of the ballot, many fans were voting for Wolf.
With friends.
Ice Climbers – Ice Climbers are the other veterans that I’m seeing heavily requested. Many are aware of the issues that they have. Some fans suggest only one Ice Climber to come back, others Wii U exclusive. Basically the same as the West.
Snake – Again, not surprising. I haven’t seen that many ‘Snake’s not going to get in!’ type of comments, but his support feels a little bit less than what I saw before.
Pichu- Somewhere in the top 25, but nowhere close to the top 10. Might change, but overall I haven’t seen strong support for a single Pokemon candidate.
Newcomers (Ordered by Series):
What? A Mii costume? [What does it mean?]
support is very strong. I see a lot of comments stating that they believe King K. Rool is a ‘shoo-in’. King K. Rool is definitely ranked in the top five in terms of hardcore support. Dixie Kong is also requested (at least top 20, possibly top 15) but not on the same scale as King K. Rool.
Waddle Dee** and Magolor – This might be something that will surprise some people, but Waddle Dee has quite a bit of support in Japan. I’ve seen a number of comments stating that they feel Kirby ‘deserves’ an additional newcomer. Waddle Dee is the ‘front runner’ of new
Kirby representation, but there is also some Magolor support. While Magolor has support in Japan, I believe that his lack of support in the West will make him an unlikely candidate. **Please note: I combined the ‘Waddle Dee’ and ‘Bandanna Dee’ votes. I saw quite a few votes saying both (saying something like, “I want Bandanna/Waddle Dee!”). Since they obviously mean one character, in those cases it was counted as one “vote” in my data.
Paper Mario and Captain Toad – Paper Mario also has a respectable amount of support. I’ve seen some comm
ents indicating that they believe he is a likely choice. Captain Toad has some support, but not enough to really state he’s a top contender.
On a F
ire Emblem Rep – Besides Roy, I’ve seen quite some calls for another Fire Emblem newcomer. The one with the most support is Micaiah. However, with the exception of Roy the support isn’t really there for one character, and it’s spread thin. Micaiah isn’t even in the ‘top 30’ of requests that I’ve documented so far. I kind of expect Chrom to shoot up a little bit once I get to post Roy/Ryu/Lucas.
Magnemite and Pokemon – 
There are some votes for various other Pokemon but Pichu and Magnemite are by far the ‘strongest’ of the bunch. Votes for Magnemite are probably not serious, as it was ranked #2 in a popularity contest for Yahoo Kids (Japanese). There was a joke in the Gengar Pokken video with Magnemite. Like Fire Emblem, Pokemon might suffer from having too many possible reps. Once again I have not seen strong support for Squirtle, Ivysaur or the Pokemon Trainer.
(Fan made)
Krystal – There is still a sizable fanbase for Krystal. I think Wolf not being in the game has detracted some support (I have seen some comments which directly state that Wolf should come back before Krystal). However, she still has pretty good support overall.
Inklings – Inklings have sizable support too. I witnessed strong support in my first results– before their game had come out, and the support has only grown in time. A lot of users felt the Inklings are imminent. Like K. Rool, I still need to see if the situation has changed since the costume.
Isaac and Ray (Custom Robo) – Both characters are currently around the same level of support. It’s a respectable amount of support, but not overwhelming. Definitely somewhere around the top 20.
Banjo and Kazooie, Arle Nadja, Jibanyan and Geno – These four 3rd party characters top the 3rd party reques
ts in Japan in my current data (Besides Snake, who I included with the Veterans). I feel that all of these characters have m
ore support as a result of the ballot being open to any character. Arle Nadja, Jibanyan and Geno were all ranked pretty closely in my last results. Banjo and Kazooie has seen the greatest ‘bump’ in polling.
FAQ:
Q: Where’s —————?
A: I’m probably tracking them. I have around 250 characters that I’m counting support for. This is just the cream of the crop, if you will. I don’t think I’ll release the full data set as only the top 30 matter. Just know that if it’s a character, it has a fan somewhere.
Q: How are you counting votes?
A: Manually. I’m reading discussion boards, tweets (and eventually) Miiverse posts. I give points to that character based on the content of that message. If the user feels they are highly likely, I increase the number of points. For tweets, I look at retweets and favorites too. For every straight mention I gave 2 points. If the user felt like they were less likely than I gave the character 1 point. This is why vote counting is taking so long. I’m hoping to measure more “perception” than straight data.
Q: When will you be finished?
Whenever it’s done. I have a very busy weekend ahead of me. I woke up extra early to type this out before I go to work. Please understand that if you want accurate data, it’s going to take a lot of time.
Q: Didn’t you just go on a rant about how we shouldn’t trust online polling?
I still believe there is a lot of danger in putting too much faith in our polls. I feel that fan made ballots only pick up a small portion of what characters are being requested, and the community might eventually be blindsided by what characters are actually chosen. This is because Sakurai needs to appeal to a wide demographic.
My goal is to at least increase the information available to the community by looking at what characters are popular with the Japanese fan base. There is a lack of knowledge about this subject, so I hope that this article and my final results will prove to be insightful.
Q: Why didn’t you do this before?
Simply because I felt that understanding the development of Smash Brothers and character selection criteria took a lot more precedent than counting votes. We at Source Gaming have been working really hard to fill in the gaps in knowledge within the community. Time is limited, Source Gaming is my passion but it’s not my job.
Q: How can I support Source Gaming?
Donations will be greatly appreciated. You can donate monthly on patreon, or you can contact me if you are interested in a one time donation, I started this research because an anonymous donor on patreon wanted it. You can also spread the word, ‘like us on Facebook’ and follow me on Twitter if you want to support Source Gaming in other ways. I also made a subreddit for Source Gaming, as we post daily (and I don’t want to spam the smashbros subreddit everyday).
Current Top 20 +1 (In lieu of Roy):
AGAIN, THESE RANKINGS ARE NOT FINAL. This is just meant to give you an idea of the top characters (so far). This is why I’m not assigning numbers to them yet.
King K. Rool, Wolf, Waddle Dee, Roy, Inklings, Ice Climbers, Snake, Paper Mario, Magolor, Banjo and Kazooie, Ashley, Geno, Krystal, Dixie, Jibanyan, Arle Nadja, Pichu, Bayonetta, Isaac, Ray, Captain Toad
Please stay tune to Source Gaming for more updates.
PushDustIn is BFFs with everyone who reads Source Gaming. Yes, even you. You can harass him on Twitter. Maybe he’ll finally go to the mall with you. Maybe.
- Smash Ultimate Development Timeline - May 16, 2020
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- Sakurai Discusses Isabelle, Echoes, and Newcomers - September 26, 2018
So… Pichu is a newcomer now?
Shhhh you didn’t see nothing.
(Thanks!)
No problem lel
I’m just too sensitive to errors
Like Jibyanyan.
Oh, Jihanyan too.
Just how many errors you can get xd
I might just collect a few before replying so that I don’t mess up the comment section >_>
Ok that’s it. I’m firing the three people + myself that checked this article before I posted it, and I’m hiring you!
Phew, I’m glad Ice Climbers still see strong support, as well as Wolf, but the lack of strength in Bulbassaur and Squirtle is a little sad. I think Charizard really was the most popular one, after all.
If we get anyone between Ice Climbers, Wolf, the rest of Pokémon Trainer, a new DK character (be it Dixie or K. Rool), Inklings or Snake, I’ll be happy about it.
Great article, I’m looking forward to the full research results!
IMO I love half of these character suggestions and hate the other half. All the unique and interesting characters are great – K. Rool, Krystal, Isaac, Geno, Inklings, etc. Unfortunately I feel like the other choices are pretty terrible and I’m praying they don’t get added in.
I’ll never understand the support for Dixie as I don’t know how she could differ much from Diddy. Kinda seems like she would be a boring clone/semiclone to an already unpopular character (Diddy only really gets played because he is/was high tier).
Paper Mario sounds boring as hell. I guess at least his moves would be interesting to look at but come on, do we really need another Mario? Why not add Baby Mario while you’re there…
Toad has always seemed like a terrible idea for a fighting character to me. I guess the devs think that too, as he’s never been added despite having popularity since even the pre-Melee days. I feel the same way about Waddle-dee as he’s supposed to be the ‘joke’ weakest enemy in the Kirby world so how could he have a full and interesting moveset?
Ice Climbers were already abandoned during development so I’m not sure why people are wasting votes on them.
Pichu….yawn. He was an awful clone back in Melee and people are just nostalgiac to see him again.
Snake personally I don’t like and don’t think he fits in with the style of the game, but I guess if he was added I wouldn’t mind because he is at least unique. Wolf I don’t mind either, but I think if they add him back they need to tweak him to make him more interesting than his Brawl self.
The votes for Waddle Dee are mostly going towards the character, not the common enemy
Bandana Waddle Dee has a moveset pretty much written for him in KRTDL focused on the Spear Ability (he’d be the first in Smash Bros to use one), and the specific character in that game has appeared in many games (He’s been in every Kirby game since 2008, aside from Epic Yarn).
Fair enough. I was unaware how prevalent the Waddle Dee with the spear was. I thought he only appeared as a ‘last resort’ player 4 character in those 4p Kirby games but I didn’t know he was his own named character and everything. Yeah it could be interesting to have a character with a spear.
I think people who say Dixie would be a Diddy clone are looking at it from a very close-minded angle… Just because she looks like Diddy and is “just another monkey” doesn’t mean she will play anything like him. I still remember when people thought Rosalina would be a Peach rip but those 2 play NOTHING alike at all.
Dixie could be a more air based floaty character that could tether and fight with her hair and have music based guitar moves even. This moveset actually shows the dirt basic things she could do and does not include animal buddies or blast barrels or other mechanics found in a DK game. Which means this isn’t even an accurate representation of EVERYTHING dixie could do.
http://orig13.deviantart.net/bd97/f/2015/124/2/a/dixie_kong_moveset_dlc_by_veemon_tamer-d8s5r27.png
Actually this page shows best what she is capable of. Statistics need to be updated since dlc releases but still a very good picture of the character,
http://dixie4smash.wix.com/votedixie#!dlc-highlights/cvsl
She has alot of potential to be unique in her own way.
On Dixie: I always wonder how people think Dixie would be similar to Diddy at all, assuming they know anything about the character. She can’t do his tail stuff, equipping rocket barrels wouldn’t make sense, and her hair provides a plethora of opportunity for a great, unique moveset that would be substantially different from Diddy’s. If she were to be a clone of anyone, it would make more sense for her to be a Donkey Kong clone than a Diddy Kong clone, but there’s little reason to make her a clone of anyone.
Excited to see such strong support for Wolf, K Rool, and Icies!
Lets hope we see them in the game!
Bandana Dee and Magolor?! I love Japan.
I’m happy to see that Micaiah is probably the most popular FE Character for Smash in Japan… Something told me that this is true before o.o.
Here’s hoping we get that Custom Robo representation. Any Ray model will do, although I think if they ultimately do add one to the game it’ll be Ray 01 or Ray Mk III since they’re more recognizable abroad. Of course there’s always the possibility of alternate costumes.
…Come on, I just wanna see some love for this little underrated Nintendo gem. Can I have that, please?
Would appreciate knowing where Takamaru sits in the ranks (if at all 🙁 )
Characters who have been given assist trophy/boss roles have suffered in requests. 🙁
However, Dunban was still being (somewhat) requested. But not enough to make it in the top 30 (so far).
Interesting to see Paper Mario apparently has solid support in Japan. He seems more mid-level in the West, but maybe I’ve been underestimating the guy a little.
Where does Sceptile seem to fall, by the way? I’ve been seeing mid-ish level support for him as well, but a decent amount of people try to discredit his support base…and it usually involves acting like a second Pokémon character won’t make it with no proof of it, then turning around and acting like veterans are exempt just because.
Great stuff, hoping to see some Goemon info at some point, but it makes me happy knowing Bandanna Dee is getting lots of love.
Aside from Magolor, Micaiah, Magnemite, Jibanyan, and Arle Nadja, it seems like pretty much everyone western fans have been requesting too.
I’ve been a bit out of the loop for a while, but when I was on Miiverse regularly, I saw Snake get a lot more support than Ice Climbers. Though, when I DID see IC support, it was the same thing: Wii U exclusive or a solo IC, both scenarios being highly unlikely.
Also, saw a lot more support for a Majora’s Mask-style Young Link here than for Pichu.
I apologize in advance to any Geno fans, but people need to let him go. If this Famitsu article was legit: ( http://www.p4rgaming.com/masahiro-sakurai-each-time-i-am-asked-to-add-geno-to-smash-bros-i-delay-the-release-by-one-day/ ), then Sakurai is obviously not interested in adding him. I mean, I love Super Mario RPG and would love to see his inclusion in Smash, but with Paper Mario and Mario & Luigi already going strong, Nintendo has obviously moved on with their Mario RPG series long ago.
That thing is proven fake already I think, that site makes some very weird fake news and stuff.
Thanks for clearing that up!
it s strange you didn t mention Bomberman he is on top of the list with King k rool on every pool
It honestly doesn’t surprise me. The interview you covered with Sakurai about Wolf implied demand for Krystal was strong and the rest is Fire Emblem and Kirby flooding.
I wonder what the reaction for Samus and Captain Falcon was for Japan back in the day.
My opinion on Banjo now is completely different to back then. I don’t know reasons for asking for Banjo but I just don’t think he belongs in the ranks anymore. Newer characters by outside companies have closer ties to Nintendo than Banjo does now.