I am still working on collecting data for the sequel to Perception of Smash DLC in Japan. However, because it’s taking a lot longer than I expected, and because I feel some sort of news is imminent, I decided to release a list of characters that I see being heavily requested in Japan. I’m also including a short FAQ at the bottom, which you should read before asking questions/ commenting. If there’s one thing that you should understand it’s:
THIS DATA IS NOT FINAL.
When I feel that I’ve collected enough data, I will release additional information about the rankings. I still haven’t decided if I’ll do another pie chart, as that format stuck with a lot of people. This data is based on over 600 comments, so I feel confident that these characters will be the front runners in the final results. Currently this data comes mostly from blogs, and 2ch, so it measures “hardcore support“. Some of it also comes from Twitter, but I’m still working through votes. Anyway, enjoy.
Roy– I am still working through pre-Lucas/Roy/Ryu votes which is why Roy appears among the top requested vets. Roy was heavily requested among fans. Again, not too surprising considering the last data I have released.
Wolf – Wolf is the (as of the current data) highest requested veteran to come back. He is easily in the top five requested characters overall, and his votes are consistent. This is to be expected from that last data that I collected, as he was ranked #2, right after Lucas. I’m still looking at results from pre-Lucas/Roy/Ryu release so I am not sure if his situation has changed. However, at least at the start of the ballot, many fans were voting for Wolf.
Ice Climbers – Ice Climbers are the other veterans that I’m seeing heavily requested. Many are aware of the issues that they have. Some fans suggest only one Ice Climber to come back, others Wii U exclusive. Basically the same as the West.
Snake – Again, not surprising. I haven’t seen that many ‘Snake’s not going to get in!’ type of comments, but his support feels a little bit less than what I saw before.
Pichu- Somewhere in the top 25, but nowhere close to the top 10. Might change, but overall I haven’t seen strong support for a single Pokemon candidate.
Newcomers (Ordered by Series):King K. Rool and Dixie-K. Rool is possibly one of most requested newcomers in Japan. Again, I have not gotten to new data so his situation might have changed a little bit, but his support is very strong. I see a lot of comments stating that they believe King K. Rool is a ‘shoo-in’. King K. Rool is definitely ranked in the top five in terms of hardcore support. Dixie Kong is also requested (at least top 20, possibly top 15) but not on the same scale as King K. Rool.
Waddle Dee** and Magolor – This might be something that will surprise some people, but Waddle Dee has quite a bit of support in Japan. I’ve seen a number of comments stating that they feel Kirby ‘deserves’ an additional newcomer. Waddle Dee is the ‘front runner’ of new Kirby representation, but there is also some Magolor support. While Magolor has support in Japan, I believe that his lack of support in the West will make him an unlikely candidate. **Please note: I combined the ‘Waddle Dee’ and ‘Bandanna Dee’ votes. I saw quite a few votes saying both (saying something like, “I want Bandanna/Waddle Dee!”). Since they obviously mean one character, in those cases it was counted as one “vote” in my data.
Paper Mario and Captain Toad – Paper Mario also has a respectable amount of support. I’ve seen some comments indicating that they believe he is a likely choice. Captain Toad has some support, but not enough to really state he’s a top contender.
On a Fire Emblem Rep – Besides Roy, I’ve seen quite some calls for another Fire Emblem newcomer. The one with the most support is Micaiah. However, with the exception of Roy the support isn’t really there for one character, and it’s spread thin. Micaiah isn’t even in the ‘top 30’ of requests that I’ve documented so far. I kind of expect Chrom to shoot up a little bit once I get to post Roy/Ryu/Lucas.
Magnemite and Pokemon – There are some votes for various other Pokemon but Pichu and Magnemite are by far the ‘strongest’ of the bunch. Votes for Magnemite are probably not serious, as it was ranked #2 in a popularity contest for Yahoo Kids (Japanese). There was a joke in the Gengar Pokken video with Magnemite. Like Fire Emblem, Pokemon might suffer from having too many possible reps. Once again I have not seen strong support for Squirtle, Ivysaur or the Pokemon Trainer.
Krystal – There is still a sizable fanbase for Krystal. I think Wolf not being in the game has detracted some support (I have seen some comments which directly state that Wolf should come back before Krystal). However, she still has pretty good support overall.
Inklings – Inklings have sizable support too. I witnessed strong support in my first results– before their game had come out, and the support has only grown in time. A lot of users felt the Inklings are imminent. Like K. Rool, I still need to see if the situation has changed since the costume.
Isaac and Ray (Custom Robo) – Both characters are currently around the same level of support. It’s a respectable amount of support, but not overwhelming. Definitely somewhere around the top 20.
Banjo and Kazooie, Arle Nadja, Jibanyan and Geno – These four 3rd party characters top the 3rd party requests in Japan in my current data (Besides Snake, who I included with the Veterans). I feel that all of these characters have more support as a result of the ballot being open to any character. Arle Nadja, Jibanyan and Geno were all ranked pretty closely in my last results. Banjo and Kazooie has seen the greatest ‘bump’ in polling.
Q: Where’s —————?
A: I’m probably tracking them. I have around 250 characters that I’m counting support for. This is just the cream of the crop, if you will. I don’t think I’ll release the full data set as only the top 30 matter. Just know that if it’s a character, it has a fan somewhere.
Q: How are you counting votes?
A: Manually. I’m reading discussion boards, tweets (and eventually) Miiverse posts. I give points to that character based on the content of that message. If the user feels they are highly likely, I increase the number of points. For tweets, I look at retweets and favorites too. For every straight mention I gave 2 points. If the user felt like they were less likely than I gave the character 1 point. This is why vote counting is taking so long. I’m hoping to measure more “perception” than straight data.
Q: When will you be finished?
Whenever it’s done. I have a very busy weekend ahead of me. I woke up extra early to type this out before I go to work. Please understand that if you want accurate data, it’s going to take a lot of time.
Q: Didn’t you just go on a rant about how we shouldn’t trust online polling?
I still believe there is a lot of danger in putting too much faith in our polls. I feel that fan made ballots only pick up a small portion of what characters are being requested, and the community might eventually be blindsided by what characters are actually chosen. This is because Sakurai needs to appeal to a wide demographic.
My goal is to at least increase the information available to the community by looking at what characters are popular with the Japanese fan base. There is a lack of knowledge about this subject, so I hope that this article and my final results will prove to be insightful.
Q: Why didn’t you do this before?
Simply because I felt that understanding the development of Smash Brothers and character selection criteria took a lot more precedent than counting votes. We at Source Gaming have been working really hard to fill in the gaps in knowledge within the community. Time is limited, Source Gaming is my passion but it’s not my job.
Q: How can I support Source Gaming?
Donations will be greatly appreciated. You can donate monthly on patreon, or you can contact me if you are interested in a one time donation, I started this research because an anonymous donor on patreon wanted it. You can also spread the word, ‘like us on Facebook’ and follow me on Twitter if you want to support Source Gaming in other ways. I also made a subreddit for Source Gaming, as we post daily (and I don’t want to spam the smashbros subreddit everyday).
Current Top 20 +1 (In lieu of Roy):
AGAIN, THESE RANKINGS ARE NOT FINAL. This is just meant to give you an idea of the top characters (so far). This is why I’m not assigning numbers to them yet.
King K. Rool, Wolf, Waddle Dee, Roy, Inklings, Ice Climbers, Snake, Paper Mario, Magolor, Banjo and Kazooie, Ashley, Geno, Krystal, Dixie, Jibanyan, Arle Nadja, Pichu, Bayonetta, Isaac, Ray, Captain Toad
Please stay tune to Source Gaming for more updates.
PushDustIn is BFFs with everyone who reads Source Gaming. Yes, even you. You can harass him on Twitter. Maybe he’ll finally go to the mall with you. Maybe.