September 30th Predictions


Since it’s only ten more days until the Mario Maker level is added to both the 3DS and the Wii U, we at Source Gaming figured we would get our predictions in for the possible update.

Please note the follow is an opinion article, and should not be taken as fact.


pdibaseI think character costumes are almost guaranteed. We’ve seen them included every time their has been content update (with the exception of Mewtwo). Wave 4 of the costumes would probably be yet another mix of seemingly random choices (Bear with a Honey Pot, anyone?) and requested fighters from the ballot (Chrom, King K. Rool, etc). Looking over the Mii Fighter costume waves, I realized that up to this point every wave has had a third party costume. I believe this tradition will continue with this upcoming wave. It could be another Bandai-Namco character as those costumes would be the easiest to negotiate.

As ginji pointed out on reddit, another stage is very likely due to the internal website number. Here’s the order:

1) Dreamland
2) Hyrule Castle
3) Peach’s Castle
4) ??????????????
5) Super Mario Maker

Based on PACK 2, the website could follow alphabet order for their packs (either English or Japanese). This means that the other stage will likely be either before S in English, or SU in Japanese.

As far as characters go, I think it’s possible we will either see Wolf, Inkling or Shovel Knight. While Star Fox Zero has been recently delayed, it cannot stop the Smash train. If Wolf was planned to be revealed and released soon, then he will still come out.

As far as Inklings go, it might be just wishful thinking at this point (Especially since I recently purchased Splatoon), but with a Mario Maker stage this DLC could be the “promotion pack” of Smash. Splatoon and Mario Maker are equally important to Nintendo’s current lineup, and both will see strong support in the next coming months. Splatoon will continue receiving updates, as well as Mario Maker.  

Shovel Knight is still rumored to be coming through the ballot. Liam Robertson (Tamaki) said he is still “fairly confident” in the rumor. I’m not exactly sure if we’ll see post-ballot DLC (even though I’ve been pretty adamant about “The End of Smash DLC”), so let me explain my rationale.

The reason is because previously I assumed that the extra character slots and stages that shinyquagsire23 found were for ballot characters. Now that one has been revealed as a Mario Maker stage instead for a newcomer, it’s possible these stages will not be used for ballot content. Instead, additional stages– and possibly characters will be added. If this is the case, then the DLC being offered for Smash for Wii U/ 3DS is truly a huge project and is comparable to the actual game’s development.

PushDustIn eagerly awaits the upcoming DLC. You can follow him on Twitter where he randomly asks his followers questions for seemingly no reason at all.



As far as my predictions go, I think it’s very likely that this is pre-ballot content as the ballot doesn’t finish until October 3rd (Slightly more than 2 weeks from now). When Ryu and Roy’s files were found in the Mewtwo update back in April, there were placeholder files for 7 stages in the 3DS version, and 5 more characters (3 of which were Ryu, Roy and Lucas). The Mario Maker stage now means that 5 of those stage placeholder files are used up, leaving either 1 or 2 unknown stages, depending on the back/forward icons on the stage select screen on the 3DS. Judging from the format of the stage screen in the Mario Maker trailer, it would appear that there’s a good chance at least one other stage will be added in this update.

Back when the files were first discovered, many people were divided between what they meant. Some believed that it was for all the DLC content we were going to get, others that it was simply for all that was planned at the time. Pre-Ballot. I’m leaning towards the latter being true.

The last character-ridden DLC was released in June, which was over 3 months ago (and the content would have been finished before that). The timing of the Mewtwo release, and when Ryu, Roy and Lucas’ development is assumed to have been started means that they’ve had enough time to finish at least a couple of characters. So this really is all fitting together nicely. Because the ballot isn’t over yet, I firmly believe that we’re getting at least 1 other update. Probably a final one between November and January.

To be more specific with what I’m going to predict, I’m going to be a bit wishful and say that I’m predicting Wolf, Dixie Kong and a new Donkey Kong stage. Because the files were added in April, I feel like this means the Inklings are less likely for this update. Splatoon was released in May so its huge success was unknown at this time. -TheAnvil



NantendoI think this time I am going to keep my expectations lower than most. We are due a character and current rumours point to Shovel Knight as a newcomer. However, the new stage we have is not Shovel Knight related and the previous newcomer related stage we got, Suzaku Castle, is not numbered on the site and so does not fall into the supposed stage numbering idea that fans currently have. With no newcomer related stage in this batch of DLC, I am going to assume we get one more returning stage from the N64 era, either Mushroom Kingdom or Saffron City, and finally Wolf, as the only veteran missing who I believe stands a chance. I do think Shovel Knight is coming but perhaps in December in order to breach the gap between current DLC and whatever post-ballot dlc we get that is planned for 2016. It will make the waiting less painful that way.


192286As Anvil pointed out above, back when the Roy, Ryu, and Lucas information was first datamined (it was when Mewtwo was released, see details for it here  it was discovered that 5 additional character slots were added to the game in the form of placeholder “Marios” being added to the fighter table.  3 of those became Roy, Ryu, and Lucas, leaving two unaccounted for.  While those two character could very well be placeholders for ballot choices, it is equally as plausible that are the final preballot selections.  

If these spots are reserved for ballot choices, then I doubt we will see any characters on September 30th.  If not, we may well see a veteran like Wolf.  I fully expect more Mii costumes (including some heartbreakers, I don’t want to say it, but Isaac seems super likely) and an additional a stage.  The biggest question for me is whether or not the new stage will come with a character.  I’m going to go out on a limb and predict Inklings with a Splatoon Stage.    (WIP)



DmurrBased on the timing of the ballot finish and the update, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect more than just the Super Mario Maker stage on the 30th of this month.  I personally don’t believe that the “Mario” slots that have been frequently discussed are necessarily strong enough evidence to make a conclusive statement about the number of characters we’re getting; however, I do think that we will get 2 more characters not based on the ballot: another veteran and a Nintendo newcomer, likely from the Super Mario-series but possibly the Legend of Zelda-series. In addition, I think we’ll see a second stage alongside the Mario Maker stage, probably a past stage.

My best guesses for these are the following: Wolf, Captain Toad, and Pirate Ship.

Wolf is an obvious inclusion for the reasons everyone is saying, and Pirate Ship is a popular stage request.  Captain Toad is where I deviate from a lot of expectations, but he’s the dark horse candidate, in my opinion.  Mario content always sells well, Toad is one of the most well-known Nintendo (or video-game overall) characters to not yet make it into Smash, his game’s producer expressed a desire for him to appear again, his game released in between November and January in various regions which makes his appearance recent and relevant during the planning stages of Smash Bros. DLC, and, in my opinion, Toad would be a character that isn’t heavily requested but happily received, especially by a general audience.

If it isn’t him though, I can see a Zelda character be a pre-ballot DLC fighter.  Hyrule Warriors is proof enough that the characters from that franchise are strong enough to support sales. The character could possibly even be based on their appearance in that game.  If Legends had been announced earlier, I would say Tetra would be a good choice since she’s practically been the face of that version, but I think Impa is the safer bet.  Sakurai has shown to have advance knowledge of upcoming games though, so who knows.

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  1. Since when did Shovel Knight become such a sho-in? The source for those rumors was supposed the retailers, but retailers don’t have ANY insider info on digitally distributed DLC.

  2. I’m still pretty positive Wolf will be released as DLC. If he is finished, I’m guessing his release was pushed back to coincide with Star Fox Zero (they intentionally delayed the release of the Falco Amiibo for that reason, after all, even though SFZ is pushed back now.) If he’s not here on the 30th, I’m sure he will be in November or December.

    If we do get Shovel Knight in Smash, it wouldn’t surprise me if it came around the time of the Japanese localized version. According to a news article on Yacht Club’s website (, the localized version was announced as far back as April. I’m not sure how long the whole process takes, but that article was published five months ago.

    As I mentioned in the comments of a previous article, if we’re going to see a Mario Mii Fighter outfit, I think now would be the best time. We already got outfits based on Link and Samus… a Mario outfit to go with those four hats would be perfect with the release of the Mario Maker stage.

  3. My predictions:

    I do agree we won’t just have only Super Mario Maker for the next update, because Nintendo should know people who’s on the hype train will complain that’s not enough. I do believe they will add in a second stage, whether that’ll be another new one, or a returning one. There may be a possibility for Saffron City or Sector Z to return if the stage is going alphabetically (or Shadow Moses Island if Snake’s gonna return), or if alphabetically isn’t the point of this method, maybe another advertisement stage…like Splatoon. But there might be another returning stage because that’s easier to create as they’re reusing the previous stage data.

    I may feel disappointed about it but I also agree that there may be more Mii costumes in the next update, and possibly another original (and weird) ones, and third parties. But if they’re planning to bring out another character, although not my favorite, maybe Wolf will return. But if they’re planning to bring up a new character instead, then they’ll make one but as a clone character of someone since clones are easier to create than building a new one from scratch. Impa being a clone of Shiek may be a possibility. But if they’re gonna bring a new character that was built from scratch, I’d be happy to see the Inklings in some form. Or I could expect a second character from Sega and Namco to balance with Capcom. I still doubt for Shovel Knight no matter what, but I may change my mind that maybe Shantae will due to her game will be released in Japan this year as an advertisement.

  4. I figure there’s a decent chance we’ll see two characters, the last of the placeholders set up back in April. I figure the reason those were set aside was because they were already planned outside of the Ballot, no?

    As for who the characters would be…that’s where things get a little complicated. Well, not for the first one–Wolf is the only remaining veteran without any potential issues, and he’s generally well-liked and less of a clone than Lucas is. Star Fox Zero may have been delayed, but it’s not as if the new game was the only reason he’d be brought back.

    The second character, though? Here’s where things get interesting. What characters might the developers have taken interest in? A safe bet would be someone that might not have been high enough priority to make the base roster. Dixie Kong or Bandana Dee, perhaps? Maybe that Rhythm Heaven character they might have made progress on. Maybe this could be Isaac’s big break, having fallen out of favor early in development due to lack of relevance then brought back now due to fan demand?

    Or how about some more wild card-y characters? Could Snake sneak his way back in somehow despite Konami’s rapid abandonment of the console market and general snub of Nintendo in recent years? Could they have somehow fixed the issues that held the Ice Climbers back originally and made them lag the 3DS version of the game any time multiple sets of them were in play? What of the Inklings, sudden fan favorites from an upstart new IP? What of Shovel Knight, with all the rumors surrounding his Amiibo?

    But here’s one I haven’t seen brought up much…what are the odds of us seeing another Pokémon from Generation 6? We know the developers singled out Greninja through a combination of concept art and design notes, knowing Pokémon X and Y would be out for a year before Smash 4. But they would’ve looked at more than just Greninja–they wouldn’t have put all their eggs in one basket, so to speak. Could one of the mons that lost out to Greninja still have caught their interest enough to get brought back for a second chance once DLC production got going?

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